ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientex-Keyd Stars pick
67%78%
ex-Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge Galorys +11%Galorys · 32 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
50%52%
ex-Keyd Stars · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Galorys · 19 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%50%
ex-Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge Galorys +17%Galorys · 12 maps
NukeGalorys pick
50%69%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge Galorys +19%Galorys · 12 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
50%38%
ex-Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +12%Galorys · 9 maps
Cacheex-Keyd Stars ban
50%54%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Galorys · 9 maps
Defaultex-Keyd Stars ban
50%67%
ex-Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge Galorys +17%Galorys · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Cache
2. BanGalorys remove Inferno
3. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickGalorys take Nuke
5. BanGalorys remove Dust2
6. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Default
DeciderAnubis (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
ex-Keyd Stars 51%Galorys 49%
The model gave 51% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
ex-Keyd Stars 34%Galorys 66%
The model gave 66% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 69%
Series resultGalorys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2