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BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-KRÜ#148 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BESTIA Academy#172 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA Academy ban
50%38%
ex-KRÜ · 4 mapsedge ex-KRÜ +12%BESTIA Academy · 4 maps
AncientBESTIA Academy pick
33%44%
ex-KRÜ · 2 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +11%BESTIA Academy · 5 maps
Infernoex-KRÜ ban
40%44%
ex-KRÜ · 1 mapnearly even -4%BESTIA Academy · 5 maps
MirageBESTIA Academy ban
60%50%
ex-KRÜ · 1 mapedge ex-KRÜ +10%BESTIA Academy · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
ex-KRÜ · 2 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +10%BESTIA Academy · 1 map
Overpassex-KRÜ ban
40%40%
ex-KRÜ · 1 mapnearly even +0%BESTIA Academy · 1 map
Defaultex-KRÜ pick
50%60%
ex-KRÜ · 0 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +10%BESTIA Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-KRÜ remove Overpass
2. BanBESTIA Academy remove Mirage
3. Pickex-KRÜ take Default
4. PickBESTIA Academy take Ancient
5. BanBESTIA Academy remove Dust2
6. Banex-KRÜ remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
ex-KRÜ 42%BESTIA Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on BESTIA Academy — the map was taken by BESTIA Academy.
Nukeprediction missed19:17
ex-KRÜ 43%BESTIA Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on BESTIA Academy — the map was taken by ex-KRÜ.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
ex-KRÜ 63%BESTIA Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-KRÜ — the map was taken by ex-KRÜ.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-KRÜ · 57%
Series resultex-KRÜ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3