ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
48%70%
ex-MANA · 17 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +22%Bushido Wildcats · 16 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
30%36%
ex-MANA · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +6%Bushido Wildcats · 10 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
70%60%
ex-MANA · 6 mapsedge ex-MANA +10%Bushido Wildcats · 6 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
50%40%
ex-MANA · 8 mapsedge ex-MANA +10%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
Anubisex-MANA ban
38%56%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +18%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
33%50%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +17%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%63%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
ex-MANA 47%Bushido Wildcats 53%
The model gave 53% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
ex-MANA 64%Bushido Wildcats 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
ex-MANA 28%Bushido Wildcats 72%
The model gave 72% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 57%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3