NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
50%53%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsnearly even -3%DONSTU · 15 maps
Dust2ex-MANA pick
57%40%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge ex-MANA +17%DONSTU · 11 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
50%43%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +7%DONSTU · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%45%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge DONSTU +5%DONSTU · 7 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%75%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +25%DONSTU · 4 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
60%43%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +17%DONSTU · 3 maps
Defaultex-MANA ban
40%60%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge DONSTU +20%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Cache
2. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
6. Banex-MANA remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
ex-MANA 69%DONSTU 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
ex-MANA 44%DONSTU 56%
The model gave 56% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
ex-MANA 44%DONSTU 56%
The model gave 56% on DONSTU — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 54%
Series resultex-MANA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3