Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
46%44%
ex-MANA · 9 mapsnearly even +2%megoshort · 5 maps
Miragemegoshort pick
71%38%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge ex-MANA +33%megoshort · 9 maps
Ancientex-MANA ban
38%38%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%30%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +10%megoshort · 6 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
40%29%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +11%megoshort · 3 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
33%60%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsedge megoshort +27%megoshort · 1 map
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
ex-MANA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
6. Banex-MANA remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
ex-MANA 55%megoshort 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by megoshort.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
ex-MANA 60%megoshort 40%
The model gave 60% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 54%
Series resultmegoshort 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2