ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GameHunters#122 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GameHunters ban
50%40%
ex-RED Canids · 0 mapsedge ex-RED Canids +10%GameHunters · 1 map
Mirageex-RED Canids pick
50%40%
ex-RED Canids · 0 mapsedge ex-RED Canids +10%GameHunters · 1 map
Nukeex-RED Canids ban
50%60%
ex-RED Canids · 0 mapsedge GameHunters +10%GameHunters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RED Canids remove Nuke
2. BanGameHunters remove Dust2
3. Pickex-RED Canids take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
ex-RED Canids 50%GameHunters 50%
The model gave 50% on ex-RED Canids — the map was taken by GameHunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteGameHunters · 64%
Series resultGameHunters 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1