NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Butterfly ban
65%57%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsedge ex-RUBY +8%Butterfly · 10 maps
Nukeex-RUBY ban
52%64%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge Butterfly +12%Butterfly · 10 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
71%67%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsnearly even +4%Butterfly · 8 maps
AncientButterfly pick
50%67%
ex-RUBY · 12 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 11 maps
CacheButterfly ban
55%71%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +16%Butterfly · 3 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%25%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +25%Butterfly · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%57%
ex-RUBY · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +14%Butterfly · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanButterfly remove Dust2
3. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Cache
6. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
ex-RUBY 36%Butterfly 64%
The model gave 64% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 55%
Series resultButterfly 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1