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NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-RUBY#99 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
63%58%
ex-RUBY · 28 mapsedge ex-RUBY +5%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 15 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
74%42%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsedge ex-RUBY +32%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 8 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
59%60%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsnearly even -1%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
45%71%
ex-RUBY · 18 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +26%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 10 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
59%50%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +9%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%57%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +7%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 10 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
60%60%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Overpass
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (63% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
ex-RUBY 82%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 18%
The model gave 82% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
ex-RUBY 23%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 77%
The model gave 77% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
ex-RUBY 55%CYBERSHOKE Prospects 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 58%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE Prospects 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3