BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
75%65%
ex-RUBY · 8 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%GenOne · 16 maps
NukeGenOne pick
80%56%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsedge ex-RUBY +24%GenOne · 14 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
33%50%
ex-RUBY · 5 mapsedge GenOne +17%GenOne · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%36%
ex-RUBY · 6 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%GenOne · 7 maps
MirageGenOne ban
55%50%
ex-RUBY · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +5%GenOne · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%70%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge GenOne +20%GenOne · 6 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
60%50%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +10%GenOne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
4. PickGenOne take Nuke
5. BanGenOne remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
ex-RUBY 59%GenOne 41%
The model gave 59% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by GenOne.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
ex-RUBY 78%GenOne 22%
The model gave 78% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
ex-RUBY 33%GenOne 67%
The model gave 67% on GenOne — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 57%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3