NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
illwillloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY ban
52%55%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsnearly even -3%illwill · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
62%40%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge ex-RUBY +22%illwill · 6 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
67%29%
ex-RUBY · 20 mapsedge ex-RUBY +38%illwill · 3 maps
Ancientillwill ban
50%40%
ex-RUBY · 16 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%illwill · 1 map
Overpassillwill pick
67%71%
ex-RUBY · 8 mapsnearly even -4%illwill · 3 maps
Cacheillwill ban
63%50%
ex-RUBY · 4 mapsedge ex-RUBY +13%illwill · 0 maps
Defaultex-RUBY ban
40%29%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +11%illwill · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Dust2
2. Banillwill remove Ancient
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. Pickillwill take Overpass
5. Banillwill remove Cache
6. Banex-RUBY remove Default
DeciderMirage (62% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ex-RUBY 63%illwill 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 85%
Series resultex-RUBY 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1