NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
56%25%
ex-RUSTEC · 28 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +31%Entropy · 16 maps
MirageEntropy pick
57%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 31 map
Anubispossible decider
61%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Entropy · 10 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 16 maps
NukeEntropy ban
43%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge Entropy +7%Entropy · 4 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 8 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%55%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Entropy +5%Entropy · 16 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickEntropy take Mirage
5. BanEntropy remove Inferno
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (61% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
ex-RUSTEC 44%Entropy 56%
The model gave 56% on Entropy — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Anubisprediction correct13:1
ex-RUSTEC 64%Entropy 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 62%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2