Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FORZE Reload#75 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
59%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 25 mapsnearly even -1%FORZE Reload · 6 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
61%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsnearly even +4%FORZE Reload · 3 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
45%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 16 mapsedge FORZE Reload +12%FORZE Reload · 3 maps
MirageFORZE Reload pick
57%55%
ex-RUSTEC · 10 mapsnearly even +2%FORZE Reload · 7 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
38%63%
ex-RUSTEC · 9 mapsedge FORZE Reload +25%FORZE Reload · 4 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 3 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +31%FORZE Reload · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickFORZE Reload take Mirage
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (71% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
ex-RUSTEC 35%FORZE Reload 65%
The model gave 65% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
ex-RUSTEC 52%FORZE Reload 48%
The model gave 52% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 55%
Series resultFORZE Reload 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2