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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-RUSTEC#79 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
50%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 18 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 19 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
56%59%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsnearly even -3%Inner Circle Academy · 13 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
47%36%
ex-RUSTEC · 13 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%41%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +9%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
Miragepossible decider
73%62%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
50%57%
ex-RUSTEC · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
45%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 7 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +5%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderMirage (73% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
ex-RUSTEC 44%Inner Circle Academy 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
ex-RUSTEC 64%Inner Circle Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 61%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2