CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nexus#139 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
59%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 30 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +9%Nexus · 2 maps
AnubisNexus pick
64%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 21 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +20%Nexus · 5 maps
NukeNexus ban
44%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 21 mapnearly even +4%Nexus · 1 map
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
44%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsedge Nexus +6%Nexus · 2 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Nexus · 2 maps
MirageNexus ban
56%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +16%Nexus · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
56%60%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Nexus · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Mirage
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderDefault (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
ex-RUSTEC 62%Nexus 38%
The model gave 62% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
ex-RUSTEC 63%Nexus 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Nexus.
Cacheprediction missed13:8
ex-RUSTEC 47%Nexus 53%
The model gave 53% on Nexus — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 67%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3