CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
63%65%
ex-RUSTEC · 12 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 33 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%SPARTA · 20 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
42%42%
ex-RUSTEC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 15 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%40%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%SPARTA · 21 map
InfernoSPARTA pick
44%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 12 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
44%43%
ex-RUSTEC · 5 mapsnearly even +1%SPARTA · 3 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
57%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 3 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +13%SPARTA · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Inferno
5. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
ex-RUSTEC 44%SPARTA 56%
The model gave 56% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
ex-RUSTEC 65%SPARTA 35%
The model gave 65% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 65%
Series resultSPARTA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2