Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
benched gods#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
61%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +11%benched gods · 4 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
56%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%benched gods · 0 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
58%38%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%benched gods · 4 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
38%30%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%benched gods · 6 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
67%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 3 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed1:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 55%benched gods 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by benched gods.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 64%benched gods 36%
The model gave 64% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 57%
Series resultbenched gods 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2