NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FORZE Reload#94 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
74%73%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 30 mapsnearly even +1%FORZE Reload · 11 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity ban
66%68%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 25 mapsnearly even -2%FORZE Reload · 15 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
56%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 mapedge FORZE Reload +11%FORZE Reload · 11 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
52%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 mapsnearly even -4%FORZE Reload · 12 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
62%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +12%FORZE Reload · 10 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
65%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 19 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +15%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +7%FORZE Reload · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
ex-Zero Tenacity 44%FORZE Reload 56%
The model gave 56% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 53%FORZE Reload 47%
The model gave 53% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 39%FORZE Reload 61%
The model gave 61% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 54%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3