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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-Zero Tenacity#56 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT pick
55%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsnearly even -1%HYPERSPIRIT · 12 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
56%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
56%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
25%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +15%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
78%63%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +15%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%63%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Dust2
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (57% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 31%HYPERSPIRIT 69%
The model gave 69% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 70%HYPERSPIRIT 30%
The model gave 70% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 56%HYPERSPIRIT 44%
The model gave 56% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3