Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TrafficPillsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheTrafficPills ban
72%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +39%TrafficPills · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity ban
65%60%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +5%TrafficPills · 1 map
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity pick
67%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%TrafficPills · 2 maps
MirageTrafficPills ban
54%29%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%TrafficPills · 3 maps
DefaultTrafficPills pick
54%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsnearly even +4%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
58%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanTrafficPills remove Cache
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Inferno
4. PickTrafficPills take Default
5. BanTrafficPills remove Mirage
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
ex-Zero Tenacity 55%TrafficPills 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 69%TrafficPills 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
ex-Zero Tenacity 55%TrafficPills 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3