Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeVexar ban
50%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
61%63%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsnearly even -2%Vexar · 4 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 8 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%42%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%Vexar · 15 maps
InfernoVexar pick
33%60%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 mapsedge Vexar +27%Vexar · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%55%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +12%Vexar · 7 maps
AnubisVexar ban
38%38%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanVexar remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Inferno
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (67% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 63%Vexar 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ex-Zero Tenacity 60%Vexar 40%
The model gave 60% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 60%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2