ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yawara#156 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
50%48%
EXODIA · 0 mapsnearly even +2%Yawara · 17 maps
AncientYawara ban
40%44%
EXODIA · 1 mapnearly even -4%Yawara · 12 maps
Dust2EXODIA pick
40%50%
EXODIA · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 12 maps
AnubisEXODIA ban
50%50%
EXODIA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 8 maps
CacheYawara ban
50%20%
EXODIA · 0 mapsedge EXODIA +30%Yawara · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
EXODIA · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
DefaultEXODIA ban
50%60%
EXODIA · 0 mapsedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEXODIA remove Anubis
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickEXODIA take Dust2
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Ancient
6. BanEXODIA remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
EXODIA 43%Yawara 57%
The model gave 57% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 68%
Series resultYawara 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1