FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#208 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoabsolute cinema ban
57%50%
F5 · 3 mapsedge F5 +7%absolute cinema · 0 maps
AncientF5 ban
33%50%
F5 · 2 mapsedge absolute cinema +17%absolute cinema · 0 maps
Anubisabsolute cinema pick
40%50%
F5 · 1 mapedge absolute cinema +10%absolute cinema · 0 maps
Nukeabsolute cinema ban
60%50%
F5 · 1 mapedge F5 +10%absolute cinema · 0 maps
OverpassF5 pick
60%50%
F5 · 1 mapedge F5 +10%absolute cinema · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Ancient
2. Banabsolute cinema remove Nuke
3. PickF5 take Overpass
4. Pickabsolute cinema take Anubis
5. Banabsolute cinema remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
F5 47%absolute cinema 53%
The model gave 53% on absolute cinema — the map was taken by F5.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
F5 63%absolute cinema 37%
The model gave 63% on F5 — the map was taken by absolute cinema.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
F5 33%absolute cinema 67%
The model gave 67% on absolute cinema — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 58%
Series resultF5 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3