ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#133 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
50%43%
F5 · 0 mapsedge F5 +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
NukeF5 pick
50%43%
F5 · 0 mapsedge F5 +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
InfernoF5 ban
50%60%
F5 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%60%
F5 · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Inferno
2. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
3. PickF5 take Nuke
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:8
F5 43%Chicken Coop 57%
The model gave 57% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by F5.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
F5 37%Chicken Coop 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
F5 50%Chicken Coop 50%
The model gave 50% on F5 — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 58%
Series resultChicken Coop 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3