NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
F5#208 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
45%63%
F5 · 7 mapsedge Wanted Goons +18%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
NukeF5 ban
50%33%
F5 · 4 mapsedge F5 +17%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
44%33%
F5 · 5 mapsedge F5 +11%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
38%57%
F5 · 4 mapsedge Wanted Goons +19%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
MirageF5 pick
67%29%
F5 · 2 mapsedge F5 +38%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
43%50%
F5 · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Dust2F5 ban
50%57%
F5 · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanF5 remove Dust2
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. PickF5 take Mirage
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
6. BanF5 remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (38% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
F5 85%Wanted Goons 15%
The model gave 85% on F5 — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
F5 31%Wanted Goons 69%
The model gave 69% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by F5.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
F5 67%Wanted Goons 33%
The model gave 67% on F5 — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 53%
Series resultWanted Goons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3