ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ShindeN#85 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fake do Biru pick
57%43%
Fake do Biru · 3 mapsedge Fake do Biru +14%ShindeN · 3 maps
NukeShindeN pick
60%57%
Fake do Biru · 1 mapnearly even +3%ShindeN · 3 maps
InfernoFake do Biru ban
40%50%
Fake do Biru · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 2 maps
MirageFake do Biru ban
40%60%
Fake do Biru · 1 mapedge ShindeN +20%ShindeN · 1 map
AnubisShindeN ban
60%50%
Fake do Biru · 1 mapedge Fake do Biru +10%ShindeN · 0 maps
OverpassShindeN ban
50%60%
Fake do Biru · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFake do Biru remove Inferno
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickFake do Biru take Dust2
4. PickShindeN take Nuke
5. BanShindeN remove Overpass
6. BanFake do Biru remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Fake do Biru 67%ShindeN 33%
The model gave 67% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Fake do Biru 50%ShindeN 50%
The model gave 50% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Fake do Biru.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Fake do Biru 31%ShindeN 69%
The model gave 69% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 63%
Series resultShindeN 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3