ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BERG#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons Force pick
50%42%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +8%BERG · 8 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
25%38%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge BERG +13%BERG · 9 maps
AncientBERG pick
57%46%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +11%BERG · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%50%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%BERG · 4 maps
AnubisBERG ban
57%38%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +19%BERG · 4 maps
CacheBERG ban
67%50%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%BERG · 0 maps
DefaultFalcons Force ban
50%60%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge BERG +10%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
2. BanBERG remove Cache
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickBERG take Ancient
5. BanBERG remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Default
DeciderInferno (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Falcons Force 58%BERG 42%
The model gave 58% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Falcons Force 32%BERG 68%
The model gave 68% on BERG — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 59%
Series resultFalcons Force 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2