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Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons Force ban
25%56%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +31%Honvéd · 28 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
60%54%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%Honvéd · 24 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 12 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
50%36%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +14%Honvéd · 7 maps
NukeHonvéd pick
25%56%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +31%Honvéd · 5 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
71%63%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +8%Honvéd · 4 maps
AnubisFalcons Force ban
40%44%
Falcons Force · 1 mapnearly even -4%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickHonvéd take Nuke
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons Force remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Falcons Force 54%Honvéd 46%
The model gave 54% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Falcons Force 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Falcons Force 60%Honvéd 40%
The model gave 60% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 55%
Series resultFalcons Force 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3