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ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#134 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NAVI Junior#85 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNAVI Junior pick
60%58%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsnearly even +2%NAVI Junior · 8 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
57%36%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +21%NAVI Junior · 7 maps
InfernoFalcons Force pick
58%33%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Falcons Force +25%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
33%44%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge NAVI Junior +11%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%40%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%NAVI Junior · 6 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
40%42%
Falcons Force · 1 mapnearly even -2%NAVI Junior · 8 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
67%50%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. PickFalcons Force take Inferno
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Falcons Force 69%NAVI Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Falcons Force 36%NAVI Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 56%
Series resultFalcons Force 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2