FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 16:14series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 16:14
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNext Up ban
60%33%
Falcons Force · 11 mapsedge Falcons Force +27%Next Up · 2 maps
CacheNext Up ban
69%50%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Falcons Force +19%Next Up · 0 maps
MirageFalcons Force ban
46%50%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Next Up · 0 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
31%50%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Next Up +19%Next Up · 0 maps
AnubisNext Up ban
55%50%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +5%Next Up · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%40%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%Next Up · 1 map
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%60%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Next Up +27%Next Up · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanNext Up remove Cache
3. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
4. BanNext Up remove Anubis
5. BanFalcons Force remove Mirage
6. BanNext Up remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Falcons Force 46%Next Up 54%
The model gave 54% on Next Up — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 64%
Series resultFalcons Force 16:14
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1