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Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Teletubisie#261 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTeletubisie pick
50%67%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsedge Teletubisie +17%Teletubisie · 2 maps
CacheFalcons Force pick
73%33%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +40%Teletubisie · 2 maps
InfernoTeletubisie ban
62%50%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Falcons Force +12%Teletubisie · 0 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
36%60%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Teletubisie +24%Teletubisie · 1 map
AnubisTeletubisie ban
67%33%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +34%Teletubisie · 2 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%67%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Teletubisie +34%Teletubisie · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Falcons Force +7%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanTeletubisie remove Inferno
3. PickFalcons Force take Cache
4. PickTeletubisie take Mirage
5. BanTeletubisie remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Falcons Force 25%Teletubisie 75%
The model gave 75% on Teletubisie — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Falcons Force 86%Teletubisie 14%
The model gave 86% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 68%
Series resultTeletubisie 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2