IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
67%42%
Falcons · 11 mapsedge Falcons +25%G2 · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%60%
Falcons · 7 mapsnearly even +4%G2 · 6 maps
MirageG2 pick
40%55%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge G2 +15%G2 · 7 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
50%50%
Falcons · 2 mapsnearly even +0%G2 · 4 maps
NukeG2 ban
63%50%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +13%G2 · 0 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%71%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge G2 +21%G2 · 3 maps
AnubisG2 ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%G2 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Mirage
5. BanG2 remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Falcons 47%G2 53%
The model gave 53% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Falcons 76%G2 24%
The model gave 76% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
Falcons 54%G2 46%
The model gave 54% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 72%
Series resultFalcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3