Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 13:6series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 13:6
K27#44 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons ban
33%68%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge K27 +35%K27 · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%70%
Falcons · 13 mapsedge K27 +5%K27 · 6 maps
AncientFalcons ban
55%67%
Falcons · 7 mapsedge K27 +12%K27 · 11 maps
NukeK27 ban
67%24%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +43%K27 · 13 maps
AnubisK27 ban
67%50%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +17%K27 · 6 maps
CacheFalcons ban
50%78%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge K27 +28%K27 · 5 maps
InfernoK27 ban
56%50%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +6%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Mirage
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. BanFalcons remove Cache
4. BanK27 remove Nuke
5. BanFalcons remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (65% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Falcons 44%K27 56%
The model gave 56% on K27 — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 95%
Series resultFalcons 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1