ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
64%68%
Falcons · 10 mapsnearly even -4%Spirit · 15 maps
AncientSpirit pick
33%79%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Spirit +46%Spirit · 10 maps
MirageSpirit ban
60%46%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge Falcons +14%Spirit · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%73%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Spirit +23%Spirit · 7 maps
CacheFalcons ban
50%54%
Falcons · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Spirit · 9 maps
NukeFalcons ban
57%60%
Falcons · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Spirit · 6 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
67%50%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +17%Spirit · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Cache
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickSpirit take Ancient
5. BanSpirit remove Mirage
6. BanFalcons remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (50% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Falcons 61%Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Falcons — the map was taken by Spirit.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Falcons 30%Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 78%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2