Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
67%75%
Falcons · 11 mapsedge The MongolZ +8%The MongolZ · 4 maps
MirageFalcons ban
40%50%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge The MongolZ +10%The MongolZ · 6 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
56%38%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +18%The MongolZ · 4 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
50%56%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge The MongolZ +6%The MongolZ · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%44%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +19%The MongolZ · 5 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
67%50%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +17%The MongolZ · 0 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%50%
Falcons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The MongolZ · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
6. BanFalcons remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
Falcons 42%The MongolZ 58%
The model gave 58% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Falcons 43%The MongolZ 57%
The model gave 57% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 90%
Series resultFalcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2