ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFalcons ban
33%69%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge TYLOO +36%TYLOO · 9 maps
InfernoTYLOO ban
63%42%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +21%TYLOO · 8 maps
MirageTYLOO pick
50%77%
Falcons · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +27%TYLOO · 9 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
67%50%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge Falcons +17%TYLOO · 0 maps
NukeFalcons pick
57%29%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge Falcons +28%TYLOO · 3 maps
CacheFalcons ban
50%71%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +21%TYLOO · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%40%
Falcons · 1 mapnearly even +0%TYLOO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Cache
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickFalcons take Nuke
4. PickTYLOO take Mirage
5. BanTYLOO remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Falcons 21%TYLOO 79%
The model gave 79% on TYLOO — the map was taken by Falcons.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Falcons 53%TYLOO 47%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 83%
Series resultFalcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2