FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Famalicão#153 in the world · win 13:7series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:7
FFlameHardloss 7:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
36%40%
Famalicão · 7 mapsnearly even -4%FlameHard · 1 map
Dust2FlameHard ban
63%40%
Famalicão · 4 mapsedge Famalicão +23%FlameHard · 1 map
CacheFlameHard ban
38%50%
Famalicão · 4 mapsedge FlameHard +12%FlameHard · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Famalicão · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FlameHard · 0 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
33%50%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge FlameHard +17%FlameHard · 0 maps
MirageFlameHard ban
60%50%
Famalicão · 1 mapedge Famalicão +10%FlameHard · 0 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%40%
Famalicão · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +10%FlameHard · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
2. BanFlameHard remove Mirage
3. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
4. BanFlameHard remove Dust2
5. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
6. BanFlameHard remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Famalicão 50%FlameHard 50%
The model gave 50% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Model check result
Model favoriteFamalicão · 60%
Series resultFamalicão 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1