Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 9:13
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%39%
Famalicão · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +17%NAVI Junior · 19 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
60%67%
Famalicão · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +7%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
AncientNAVI Junior ban
36%27%
Famalicão · 7 mapsedge Famalicão +9%NAVI Junior · 11 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
33%60%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge NAVI Junior +27%NAVI Junior · 16 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
33%33%
Famalicão · 5 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%38%
Famalicão · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +12%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
50%33%
Famalicão · 6 mapsedge Famalicão +17%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
5. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (56% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Famalicão 66%NAVI Junior 34%
The model gave 66% on Famalicão — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 54%
Series resultNAVI Junior 9:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1