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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FarmVille#188 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFarmVille ban
17%60%
FarmVille · 8 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +43%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Dust2Unreal Nightmare ban
33%50%
FarmVille · 8 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +17%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%43%
FarmVille · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +13%Unreal Nightmare · 3 maps
CacheUnreal Nightmare ban
56%40%
FarmVille · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +16%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
AncientFarmVille ban
50%50%
FarmVille · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
AnubisUnreal Nightmare pick
60%50%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
DefaultFarmVille pick
50%40%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge FarmVille +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Dust2
3. PickFarmVille take Default
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Anubis
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Cache
6. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (56% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
FarmVille 11%Unreal Nightmare 89%
The model gave 89% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
FarmVille 53%Unreal Nightmare 47%
The model gave 53% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 65%
Series resultFarmVille 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2