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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
FarmVille#188 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FarmVille pick
44%44%
FarmVille · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
55%45%
FarmVille · 7 mapsedge FarmVille +10%Wanted Goons · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%33%
FarmVille · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +30%Wanted Goons · 8 maps
InfernoWanted Goons pick
27%60%
FarmVille · 11 mapsedge Wanted Goons +33%Wanted Goons · 1 map
CacheWanted Goons ban
50%40%
FarmVille · 6 mapsedge FarmVille +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
AnubisFarmVille ban
60%38%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge FarmVille +22%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
50%29%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge FarmVille +21%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
2. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. PickWanted Goons take Inferno
5. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
6. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (63% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
FarmVille 52%Wanted Goons 48%
The model gave 52% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
FarmVille 75%Wanted Goons 25%
The model gave 75% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
FarmVille 59%Wanted Goons 41%
The model gave 59% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 54%
Series resultWanted Goons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3