FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fathomloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
50%80%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +30%SportsBetExpert · 16 maps
InfernoFathom ban
50%68%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +18%SportsBetExpert · 15 maps
NukeFathom ban
40%75%
Fathom · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +35%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Fathom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
AnubisFathom pick
60%58%
Fathom · 1 mapnearly even +2%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
50%38%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge Fathom +12%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%50%
Fathom · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFathom remove Nuke
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickFathom take Anubis
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
6. BanFathom remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
Fathom 55%SportsBetExpert 45%
The model gave 55% on Fathom — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Fathom 18%SportsBetExpert 82%
The model gave 82% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 77%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2