Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FaZe#14 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FaZe pick
44%57%
FaZe · 5 mapsedge Alliance +13%Alliance · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
38%43%
FaZe · 4 mapsedge Alliance +5%Alliance · 3 maps
NukeAlliance ban
57%50%
FaZe · 3 mapsedge FaZe +7%Alliance · 4 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
50%63%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge Alliance +13%Alliance · 4 maps
AnubisAlliance pick
33%40%
FaZe · 2 mapsedge Alliance +7%Alliance · 1 map
MirageAlliance ban
50%50%
FaZe · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 0 maps
OverpassFaZe ban
50%40%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge FaZe +10%Alliance · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFaZe remove Inferno
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickFaZe take Dust2
4. PickAlliance take Anubis
5. BanAlliance remove Nuke
6. BanFaZe remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (38% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
FaZe 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the map was taken by FaZe.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
FaZe 60%Alliance 40%
The model gave 60% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 62%
Series resultFaZe 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2