FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
FaZe#11 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliance#50 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAlliance pick
55%67%
FaZe · 7 mapsedge Alliance +12%Alliance · 8 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
50%79%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge Alliance +29%Alliance · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
71%60%
FaZe · 3 mapsedge FaZe +11%Alliance · 6 maps
Dust2Alliance ban
38%50%
FaZe · 4 mapsedge Alliance +12%Alliance · 4 maps
CacheFaZe pick
73%50%
FaZe · 7 mapsedge FaZe +23%Alliance · 0 maps
AnubisFaZe ban
43%43%
FaZe · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 3 maps
MirageAlliance ban
60%50%
FaZe · 6 mapsedge FaZe +10%Alliance · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFaZe remove Inferno
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickFaZe take Cache
4. PickAlliance take Ancient
5. BanAlliance remove Dust2
6. BanFaZe remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
FaZe 35%Alliance 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
FaZe 65%Alliance 35%
The model gave 65% on FaZe — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 85%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2