NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Festina Lente#193 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFestina Lente ban
50%44%
Festina Lente · 0 mapsedge Festina Lente +6%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
NukeFestina Lente pick
67%57%
Festina Lente · 2 mapsedge Festina Lente +10%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
AncientIowa Stormboar pick
40%50%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
AnubisFestina Lente ban
50%60%
Festina Lente · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
60%50%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
OverpassIowa Stormboar ban
60%50%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +10%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFestina Lente remove Mirage
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
3. PickFestina Lente take Nuke
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Ancient
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Overpass
6. BanFestina Lente remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Festina Lente 53%Iowa Stormboar 47%
The model gave 53% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Festina Lente 63%Iowa Stormboar 37%
The model gave 63% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
Festina Lente 40%Iowa Stormboar 60%
The model gave 60% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteFestina Lente · 50%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3