CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Festina Lente#193 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukeraisedbypixels ban
57%50%
Festina Lente · 3 mapsedge Festina Lente +7%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Ancientraisedbypixels pick
33%50%
Festina Lente · 2 mapsedge raisedbypixels +17%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
AnubisFestina Lente ban
50%50%
Festina Lente · 2 mapsnearly even +0%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Dust2raisedbypixels ban
60%40%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +20%raisedbypixels · 1 map
MirageFestina Lente ban
60%40%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +20%raisedbypixels · 1 map
DefaultFestina Lente pick
50%40%
Festina Lente · 0 mapsedge Festina Lente +10%raisedbypixels · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
60%50%
Festina Lente · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +10%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFestina Lente remove Mirage
2. Banraisedbypixels remove Nuke
3. PickFestina Lente take Default
4. Pickraisedbypixels take Ancient
5. Banraisedbypixels remove Dust2
6. BanFestina Lente remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Festina Lente 67%raisedbypixels 33%
The model gave 67% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by raisedbypixels.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
Festina Lente 63%raisedbypixels 37%
The model gave 63% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Festina Lente 69%raisedbypixels 31%
The model gave 69% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by raisedbypixels.
Model check result
Model favoriteFestina Lente · 56%
Series resultraisedbypixels 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3