WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFIN ban
50%40%
FIN · 0 mapsedge FIN +10%K28 · 1 map
Dust2K28 pick
50%40%
FIN · 0 mapsedge FIN +10%K28 · 1 map
MirageFIN pick
40%50%
FIN · 1 mapedge K28 +10%K28 · 0 maps
NukeK28 ban
40%50%
FIN · 1 mapedge K28 +10%K28 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFIN remove Ancient
2. BanK28 remove Nuke
3. PickFIN take Mirage
4. PickK28 take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
FIN 63%K28 37%
The model gave 63% on FIN — the map was taken by K28.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
FIN 37%K28 63%
The model gave 63% on K28 — the map was taken by K28.
Model check result
Model favoriteFIN · 50%
Series resultK28 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2