ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#128 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DDrama#143 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%40%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsedge Fire Flux +16%Drama · 1 map
MirageDrama pick
38%50%
Fire Flux · 9 mapsedge Drama +12%Drama · 2 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
57%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Drama · 0 maps
InfernoDrama ban
64%50%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Drama · 0 maps
CacheDrama ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Drama · 0 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
60%50%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%Drama · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
29%67%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Drama +38%Drama · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanDrama remove Cache
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. PickDrama take Mirage
5. BanDrama remove Inferno
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Fire Flux 60%Drama 40%
The model gave 60% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Fire Flux 36%Drama 64%
The model gave 64% on Drama — the map was taken by Drama.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Fire Flux 65%Drama 35%
The model gave 65% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 53%
Series resultFire Flux 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3