ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#128 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
53%54%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsnearly even -1%Inner Circle Academy · 22 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
67%57%
Fire Flux · 11 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%Inner Circle Academy · 17 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
33%57%
Fire Flux · 8 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +24%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
63%40%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +23%Inner Circle Academy · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
45%63%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +18%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
58%50%
Fire Flux · 8 mapsedge Fire Flux +8%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
DeciderCache (45% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed19:17
Fire Flux 36%Inner Circle Academy 64%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Fire Flux 69%Inner Circle Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Fire Flux 49%Inner Circle Academy 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 55%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3