CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
56%66%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 31 map
Dust2Fire Flux ban
57%61%
Fire Flux · 19 mapsnearly even -4%mellren · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
69%58%
Fire Flux · 12 mapsedge Fire Flux +11%mellren · 15 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
68%73%
Fire Flux · 18 mapsedge mellren +5%mellren · 7 maps
Nukemellren ban
50%19%
Fire Flux · 12 mapsedge Fire Flux +31%mellren · 12 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
25%74%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge mellren +49%mellren · 19 maps
Cachemellren ban
59%50%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%mellren · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. Banmellren remove Cache
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Nuke
6. BanFire Flux remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (69% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
Fire Flux 62%mellren 38%
The model gave 62% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
Fire Flux 37%mellren 63%
The model gave 63% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Fire Flux 62%mellren 38%
The model gave 62% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 51%
Series resultmellren 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3