ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNAVI Junior ban
57%40%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%NAVI Junior · 1 map
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
75%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +25%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior pick
38%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +12%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
40%67%
Fire Flux · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +27%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
InfernoFire Flux pick
50%33%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
50%40%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%NAVI Junior · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Inferno
4. PickNAVI Junior take Dust2
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Fire Flux 57%NAVI Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Fire Flux 77%NAVI Junior 23%
The model gave 77% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 57%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2