ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fisher College#85 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aether#215 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAether pick
50%71%
Fisher College · 2 mapsedge Aether +21%Aether · 3 maps
InfernoAether ban
43%50%
Fisher College · 3 mapsedge Aether +7%Aether · 0 maps
DefaultFisher College pick
60%40%
Fisher College · 1 mapedge Fisher College +20%Aether · 1 map
Dust2Fisher College ban
50%67%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge Aether +17%Aether · 2 maps
MirageFisher College ban
40%60%
Fisher College · 1 mapedge Aether +20%Aether · 1 map
NukeAether ban
33%50%
Fisher College · 2 mapsedge Aether +17%Aether · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFisher College remove Dust2
2. BanAether remove Inferno
3. PickFisher College take Default
4. PickAether take Ancient
5. BanAether remove Nuke
6. BanFisher College remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
Fisher College 47%Aether 53%
The model gave 53% on Aether — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Fisher College 31%Aether 69%
The model gave 69% on Aether — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Model check result
Model favoriteFisher College · 79%
Series resultFisher College 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2